PC: High supply and low demand?
Since the beginning of this year, the PC market seems to have been stuck in a low-pressure atmosphere for a long time, unable to extricate itself. Taking the price of WY-111BR at Lihuayi Weiyuan China Plastics City as an example, the current quotation is 10,700 yuan/ton, which is 400 yuan/ton lower than that at the beginning of August and 2,800 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year, hitting a historical low. The overall performance of the PC market in August was characterized by high supply, falling prices, low demand, showing an obvious pattern of imbalance between supply and demand. Can the PC market reverse its decline in the golden month of September?
Strong rise in raw material bisphenol A provides support (positive factor)
Entering September, the bisphenol A market has started an upward trend. Affected by the long-term loss of theoretical profits, the average operating rate of the bisphenol A industry has decreased, the inventory pressure on the supply side has eased, and production enterprises have a stronger willingness to collectively push up prices. In addition, the prices of the two raw materials, phenol, have risen sharply, providing certain support for the cost side of bisphenol A. As of September 9, the market price of bisphenol A in East China had risen to around 8,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton compared with the beginning of the month.
High supply remains difficult to reduce (negative factor)
According to statistics, domestic PC output in August was approximately 307,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.14% and a year-on-year increase of 11.24%, with capacity utilization remaining at around 82%. There were not many enterprises undergoing maintenance in August; only the PC production lines of Shengtong Juyuan and Wanhua Chemical were shut down for maintenance, with relatively limited impact. In addition, some manufacturers temporarily reduced the load of their devices in the middle of the month, but the overall operating rate remained at a high level. Manufacturers still faced pressure in product shipments, and the supply side of the market provided poor support for PC prices.
Off-season effect coupled with poor macro expectations, leading to sluggish demand (negative factor)
The current PC market is in the transition period between the traditional off-season and peak season, but the operating rate of downstream factories has not rebounded, and stockpiling remains at a weak rigid demand level, with no advance stockpiling operations. Even though PC prices have dropped to historical lows, it is still difficult to boost market confidence and stimulate buying. In addition, the continued downturn in the global macroeconomic environment has further suppressed market demand.
Overall, the PC market in the later period will find it difficult to get rid of the core contradiction of "high supply and low demand". The rise in raw material bisphenol A may provide phased cost support, but it is difficult to reverse the overall weakness. It is highly likely that the market will continue to fluctuate and adjust in September, with insufficient momentum for a significant rebound.
